BART is facing a budget deficit of $376 million for FY27 as state and federal pandemic funding run out.[1] To address this, State Senators Wiener (San Francisco) and Arreguín (Oakland) wrote SB 63, the Connect Bay Area Act. The bill authorizes a sales tax of 1.0% in San Francisco and 0.5% in Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo, and Santa Clara counties, the revenue of which would go to local transit districts, pending voter approval in the November 3, 2026 election.[2]

A Bay Without BART

Elias Fretwell

Current Service

BART currently operates 5 lines:
• Red between Richmond and Millbrae
• Orange between Richmond and Berryessa
• Yellow between Antioch and SFO
• Green between Daly City and Berryessa
• Blue between Daly City and Dublin/Pleasanton

Phase 1

If BART doesn't receive funding, it will be forced to make deep cuts. Phase 1 cuts include reducing the Red and Green lines to peak hours only, decreasing train frequency to once per 30 minutes, stopping service after 9 PM, and closing 10 stations. Phase 1 implementation would begin January 2027.[3]

Phase 2

In July 2027, Phase 2 would begin, shutting down Blue Line service, stopping the Orange Line at Bay Fair and the Yellow Line at Concord, and closing all stations south of Daly City except for SFO. BART service would resemble what is was 50 years ago and would be reduced by 70% from what it is now.[4]

Phase 3

If BART continues to have negative revenue after Phase 2 cuts or cannot maintain compliance with laws and regulations, Phase 3 will begin. Phase 3 would have BART use its remaining money to secure its assets and completely end service,[5] leaving most of the Bay Area without rapid transit.

Current BART service map BART service map after Phase 1 service cuts BART service map after Phase 2 service cuts BART service map after Phase 3 service cuts

Communities

While the whole Bay would feel the impact of losing BART, the effects won't be evenly distributed. Communities directly surrounding stations and large portions of San Francisco, Oakland, and Berkeley would be hit the hardest as they have the highest concentrations of people who rely on BART to get to and from work.[6]
Hover underlined text to highlight that region.

Traffic

Current Traffic[7]

The Bay Area's geography means that we have a lot of bridges and tunnels, which restrict the flow of cars. This turns a 30 mile trip from central Contra Costa County to San Francisco take over an hour, with major backups at the Caldecott Tunnel and Bay Bridge. Traffic on I-80 often makes walking seem more appealing. Few days go by where you don't hear of a backup at the Maze on the morning news. Moving 200,000 people per day,[8] BART helps keep cars off the highways, alleviates bottlenecks, and provides a congestion-free way to get around. Without it, traffic would only get worse.

Additional Traffic[9]

If everyone who currently takes BART at peak hour instead drove, thousands of additional cars would end up on the already-congested freeways, slowing down commutes and worsening air pollution and climate change. Hardest hit would be the Bay Bridge, the only reasonable connection between San Francisco and most of the East Bay; I-880, connecting southern Alameda County to the northern part and San Francisco; and SR 24, the link between central and eastern Contra Costa to the rest of the Bay.

Not Everyone Could Drive

People without a car need BART to get them around the region. BART provides a crucial service to the half of its riders who don't have a car.[10]

■ Do Not Own a Car
■ Own a Car

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Each square represents approximately 12,000 riders each week.

Replacement

If everyone who rode BART made their trips on other forms of transit, the Bay's other transit agencies would immediately be overwhelmed. Putting aside the fact that other agencies simply can't replace BART service, doing that would require massive vehicle purchases and lots of training.

Meet Karl

Karl is one of two of the San Francisco Bay Ferry's new Dorado class ferries, which can hold up to 320 people and cost $15 million each.[11] In order to move everyone traveling across the Bay at peak hour, the San Francisco Bay Ferry would need 14 more Karls,[12] over half the size of its current fleet and costing $210 million. These ferries would be at maximum capacity and would only get people between Oakland and San Francisco, requiring buses to get people to their final destinations.

Image of San Francisco Bay Ferry Karl ferry boat
Photo San Francisco Bay Ferry
Image of AC Transit New Flyer XHE60 bus
Photo AC Transit via Twitter
Agency Current Fleet Size Additional Buses Needed
Budget Category (FY 25-26) Current (millions of dollars) Additional (millions of dollars)
Capital Budget 407.6 327.9
Operations 349.4 67.5

Meet the New Flyer XHE60

It doesn't have a fun name like Karl but it can hold up to 125 people and runs on hydrogen.[13] It's a high-capacity bus, but transit agencies would still need a lot of them to replace BART.

To move BART riders by bus at peak hour, Bay Area transit agencies would have to buy hundreds of buses. AC Transit would need the most, requiring 145 XHE60 or similar-capacity buses, followed by Muni (89), SamTrans (66), County Connection (23), Wheels (12), VTA (8), and Tri Delta Transit (6).[14]

Costly bus service

Running this replacement bus service would be expensive. AC Transit recently purchased 9 XHE60 buses for $20.3 million,[15] putting the cost of one bus at $2.26 million and the total for AC Transit's 145 new buses at $327.9 million, 80% of the agency's currently-budgeted $407.6 million FY2026 capital budget.[16] AC Transit budgeted $349.4 million for this fiscal year's bus-related expenses (operator salaries, vehicle parts and maintenance, fuel, etc.)[17] and ran 1.424 million bus-hours from July 1, 2025 to June 30, 2026.[18] AC Transit would need to run an additional 260,000 bus-hours each year,[19] costing $67.5 million annually at its current bus-hour cost.

Connections

Even without transit agencies having to work to move people that BART would have moved, their service won't be as good without rapid rail connections. Around the region, 261 routes connect to BART, covering a total of 3,100 miles, getting people to and from places where BART doesn't directly go.[20] One in six BART trips starts or ends with a connection from one of these routes.[21]

Activities

From shops to restaurants to hikes and bike rides to just getting out to see the Bay Area, BART connects people to all sorts of fun things. Without it, the Bay would be much less lively, reversing the progress we've made since COVID.

Lyft Bike*

Lyft Bike, the Bay Area's bikeshare system, operated by Lyft, has 770 bike rental spaces near BART stations.[22] From July 1, 2025 to June 30, 2026, 595,790 rides started or ended at these rental stations. These trips had a total distance of over 860,000 miles,[23] 165,000 more miles than the crew of Artemis II traveled going around the Moon and more than three times their farthest distance from Earth.[24] 59% of BART trips start or end with some form of active transportation.[25]
* Formerly Bay Wheels

■ Walk, Bike, Scooter
■ Transit, Shuttle, Private Vehicle

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Each square represents approximately 12,000 trips each week.

■ Social/Recreational/Shopping
■ Work/School
■ Other

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Each square represents approximately 12,000 trips each week.

Restaurants and shops

21% of all trips made by BART are are social, recreational, or involve shopping, including half of all weekend trips.[26] BART allows people to get out without having to worry about traffic or finding a parking spot and adding more time to the meter. Over 2,140 restaurants[27] and 2,950 shops[28] are within ½ mile of a BART station. BART's proximity to thousands of businesses and the number of people it moves to those places make it an important part of the regional economy.

⮝
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■ Above Regional Median Annual Salary
■ Below Regional Median Annual Salary

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Each square represents approximately 10 full-time BART employees.

Jobs

In addition to getting people to their jobs and supporting the Bay Area's economy, BART has 3,780 full-time employees, with a mean annual salary of $147,000. Half of these employees[29] make more than the regional median annual salary of $137,000.[30] This makes BART a large employer and one that provides high salaries to thousands of people.

That is:

A Bay Without BART

Without BART service, traffic would get worse, especially in places where it's already bad. Other transit agencies simply could not cover BART's service and would be diminished without being able to connect to fast long-distance service at BART stations. With more traffic and no alternative, more time would be lost commuting and more money would be spent on gas, and at a time when gas prices are stubbornly high. This would also mean less people shopping, eating out, and being out and about, reversing the rebound from COVID. As a major employer, BART shutting down would eliminate thousands of jobs, many of them high-paying.

When the Connect Bay Area Act comes to the ballot in November (appearing as Measure RTM on the ballot), consider if A Bay Without BART—thousands of more cars clogging the freeways, thousands of people unable to travel the Bay Area, thousands fewer jobs, and thousands fewer people enjoying our amazing weather, great food, and diverse shops—is worth saving a fraction of a percent in sales taxes.

References

  1. ^ "BART is Facing a Financial Deficit", Bay Area Rapid Transit, https://www.bart.gov/about/financials/crisis.
  2. ^ California State Legislature, Senate, Connect Bay Area Act, SB 63, https://calmatters.digitaldemocracy.org/bills/ca_202520260sb63.
  3. ^ BART, "San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transit District Board Workshop 2026," February 12, 2026, https://www.bart.gov/sites/default/files/2026-02/[BART Board Workshop 02-12-2026] Presentations.pdf, 40.
  4. ^ BART, "San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transit District Board Workshop 2026," 42.
  5. ^ BART, "San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transit District Board Workshop 2026," 60.
  6. ^ U.S. Census Bureau; "Means of Transportation to Work," American Community Survey, ACS 1-Year Estimates Detailed Tables 2024, Table B08301; https://data.census.gov/table/ACSDT1Y2024.B08301.
  7. ^ California Department of Transportation, Annual Average Daily Traffic, 2026, distributed by ArcGIS, https://gisdata-caltrans.opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/d8833219913c44358f2a9a71bda57f76_0/about.
  8. ^ Bay Area Rapid Transit, "May 2026 Monthly Riderhsip Snapshot," June 10, 2026, https://www.bart.gov/sites/default/files/2026-06/202605 Monthly Ridership Snapshot.pdf.
  9. ^ Bay Area Rapid Transit, Hourly Ridership by Origin-Destination Pairs, 2025, https://afcweb.bart.gov/ridership/origin-destination/.
  10. ^ "2023-2024 Regional Transit Passenger Snapshot Survey," Metropolitan Transportation Commission, July 31, 2025, https://public.tableau.com/shared/W2Z7CGP9J.
  11. ^ "Meet Our Fleet," San Francisco Bay Ferry, last modified June 6, 2026, https://sanfranciscobayferry.com/meet-our-fleet/.
  12. ^ Bay Area Rapid Transit, Hourly Ridership.
  13. ^ "Xcelsior Charge FC™," New Flyer, August 21, 2023, https://www.newflyer.com/site-content/uploads/2023/08/Xcelsior-CHARGE-FC.pdf.
  14. ^ Bay Area Rapid Transit, Hourly Ridership.
  15. ^ Alameda-Contra Costa Transit District, Adopted Budget Fiscal Year 2025-26, 54, 2025, https://www.actransit.org/sites/default/files/2025-10/FY2025-26%20District%20Adopted%20Budget%20Book.pdf.
  16. ^ Alameda-Contra Costa Transit District, Adopted Budget Fiscal Year 2025-26, 55.
  17. ^ Alameda-Contra Costa Transit District, Adopted Budget Fiscal Year 2025-26, 132-135.
  18. ^ AC Transit, Alameda-Contra Costa Transit District Feed Versions, 2026, distributed by Transitland, https://www.transit.land/feeds/f-9q9-actransit.
  19. ^ Bay Area Rapid Transit, Hourly Ridership.
  20. ^ Regional Feed, 2026, distributed by 511, http://api.511.org/transit/datafeeds?operator_id=RG.
  21. ^ Preliminary BART Station Profile Study, 35, RSG, August 2025, https://mtcdrive.app.box.com/v/onboard-survey-reports/file/2097328513809.
  22. ^ Station Information, 2026, distributed by Lyft, https://gbfs.lyft.com/gbfs/2.3/bay/en/station_information.json.
  23. ^ Lyft Bike Trip History, 2025-2026, distributed by Lyft, https://s3.amazonaws.com/baywheels-data/index.html.
  24. ^ "NASA Welcomes Record-Setting Artemis II Moonfarers Back to Earth," NASA, April 10, 2026, https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-welcomes-record-setting-artemis-ii-moonfarers-back-to-earth/.
  25. ^ Preliminary BART Station Profile Study, 35.
  26. ^ "2023-2024 Regional Transit Passenger Snapshot Survey," Metropolitan Transportation Commission, July 31, 2025, https://public.tableau.com/shared/DYC8J3KT4.
  27. ^ OpenStreetMap contributors, Planet Dump, accessed July 28, 2026, distributed by Overpass Turbo, https://overpass-turbo.eu/s/2wsd.
  28. ^ OpenStreetMap contributors, Planet Dump, accessed July 28, 2026, distributed by Overpass Turbo, https://overpass-turbo.eu/s/2wse.
  29. ^ San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transit District, 2024, distributed by California State Controller, https://gcc.sco.ca.gov/Reports/SpecialDistricts/SpecialDistrict.aspx?entityid=3396&year=2024.
  30. ^ "Income - Vital Signs," Metropolitan Transportation Commission, last modified March 2026, https://vitalsigns.mtc.ca.gov/indicators/income.

Methodology

All Python code can be found on GitHub in the scripts directory. GIS files are not on GitHub due to their large size.

Communities
I calculated the number of BART commuters as the number of people whose method of transportation to work is "subway" from the Census Bureau's "Means of Transportation to Work" table (B08301). The Census tabulates light rail (Muni and VTA) and commuter rail (ACE, Caltrain, and Capitol Corridor) separately, so BART is the only system in the Bay Area counted as a subway.

Traffic
I found the peak hour for every station pair as well as the shortest route by highway between them. I summed the count of people for each direction on each segment (created by splitting highway lines by the Voronoi polygons of CalTrans' traffic data points) to get the total additional people on each segment. I divided the total number of people by the average amount of people in a car commuting to/from work (1.1989865285540593, calculated from the Census Bureau's "Means of Transportation to Work" table). Comparing this calculated number to the current peak hour car count yields the percent increase in traffic.

Replacement
To calculate the number of ferries needed, I found the total number of transbay trips during peak hour in a single direction, divided that by ferry capacity, then divided that by two, since each ferry can make two trips back and forth in an hour. To calculate the number of buses needed, I grouped every station by the primary transit agency serving them, then for each pair of stations I added that pair's ridership to a ridership sum for each agency that trip would use. For example, if an average of 100 people take BART between San Bruno and Pittsburg/Bay Point at peak hour would add 100 people to the counts for SamTrans, Muni, AC Transit, County Connection, and Tri Delta Transit.

Connecting Routes
To generate the list of connectiong routes, I found all stops within 500 feet (approximately two blocks) of a BART station and matched those to the routes that serve them. The total length is calculated from the GTFS shapes.txt file.

Lyft Bike
To calculate the number of bike rides, I counted the trips starting within 500 feet of a BART station. To approximate the length of each trip, I calculated the length of the legs of the right triangle connecting the start and end point. This overestimates the distance when the actual route taken involved segments at an angle to the latitude/longitude grid, such as from Market and Castro to the Ferry Building, and underestimates the distance when the route taken involves curved segment, such as across the UC Berkeley campus, or when the route involves multiple turns, such as the Wiggle.

Restaurants and Shops
Data for locations comes from OpenStreetMap via Overpass Turbo. I counted any element with an amenity attribute of bar, biergarten, cafe, ice_cream, or restaurant as a restaurant and anything with the shop attribute as a shop. The queries for restaurants and shops are below, run on a bounding box encompassing the full BART service area.

(
    node[amenity=restaurant]({{bbox}});
    way[amenity=restaurant]({{bbox}});
    node[amenity=ice_cream]({{bbox}});
    way[amenity=ice_cream]({{bbox}});
    node[amenity=bar]({{bbox}});
    way[amenity=bar]({{bbox}});
    node[amenity=biergarten]({{bbox}});
    way[amenity=biergarten]({{bbox}});
    node[amenity=cafe]({{bbox}});
    way[amenity=cafe]({{bbox}});
);
out center;

(
    node[shop]({{bbox}});
    way[shop]({{bbox}});
);
out center;

Jobs
I counted full-time employees as any employee whose total wages were greater than or equal to their minimum salary.

AI Disclosure

I used OpenAI's GPT-5.5 Instant to organize over 500 unique BART position names into 13 categories. No AI was used in the gathering or processing of data nor in the writing of this article. The categories and their respective positions can be found in scripts/employment.py.

Open Source

This project is open source! All scripts, content, and output data are on GitHub at Narlotl/a_bay_without_bart.